Former Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog, Rajiv Kumar, has projected a GDP growth rate of approximately 6.5% for the current fiscal year in India. Kumar emphasized that India has the potential to grow at 8% or higher to meet the aspirations of its youthful population and create substantial employment opportunities.

In an interview with PTI, Kumar stated, “My growth projection (of India’s GDP growth in FY 2023-24) is 6.5 per cent. And I think we can easily maintain this (growth) over the next few years.” This forecast comes after India recorded a GDP growth of 7.2% in 2022-23, which was lower than the 9.1% growth witnessed in the previous fiscal year.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also estimated India’s GDP growth for the current fiscal year to be around 6.5%. Kumar highlighted that the macroeconomic situation in India is benefiting from the reforms initiated over the last nine years. Key indicators, such as the manageable current account deficit, ample foreign exchange reserves covering approximately 11 months of imports, and steady foreign direct investment inflows, suggest a favorable environment.

On the domestic front, Kumar noted that inflation is trending downwards towards target levels, and government tax revenues have exhibited a robust 16% increase compared to the previous year. These factors are expected to contribute to fiscal consolidation and have led to improvements in credit ratings by rating agencies.

However, Kumar expressed concern over India’s declining exports, which have dropped by about 11% between April and August compared to the same period the previous year. He attributed this decline to the weak global demand, particularly in Europe and the United States, which has affected India’s export performance.

Kumar emphasized the need to enhance India’s share in global markets and address the correlation between India’s export performance and global trade trends. He encouraged efforts to boost India’s exports to a more significant share of world markets.

Regarding criticisms of India’s GDP measurement, Kumar called for clarity on the methodology employed. He suggested that the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) should provide clear reasons for using the wholesale price index (WPI) deflator instead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the GDP deflator to resolve any ambiguities in the calculation.

India’s real GDP growth for Q1 FY24 stood at 7.8% year-on-year, as per the Income or Production Approach. Recent discussions within the economic community have included debates on GDP measurement methods, with some economists expressing concerns over potential overestimation.

Former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian argued that GDP in India is primarily measured from the income side, potentially leading to an overestimation of growth. Nevertheless, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran defended the statistical accuracy of the data, highlighting the credibility of the same statistical authority during periods of economic contraction in the past.

Former Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog, Rajiv Kumar, has projected a GDP growth rate of approximately 6.5% for the current fiscal year in India. Kumar emphasized that India has the potential to grow at 8% or higher to meet the aspirations of its youthful population and create substantial employment opportunities.

In an interview with PTI, Kumar stated, “My growth projection (of India’s GDP growth in FY 2023-24) is 6.5 per cent. And I think we can easily maintain this (growth) over the next few years.” This forecast comes after India recorded a GDP growth of 7.2% in 2022-23, which was lower than the 9.1% growth witnessed in the previous fiscal year.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also estimated India’s GDP growth for the current fiscal year to be around 6.5%. Kumar highlighted that the macroeconomic situation in India is benefiting from the reforms initiated over the last nine years. Key indicators, such as the manageable current account deficit, ample foreign exchange reserves covering approximately 11 months of imports, and steady foreign direct investment inflows, suggest a favorable environment.

On the domestic front, Kumar noted that inflation is trending downwards towards target levels, and government tax revenues have exhibited a robust 16% increase compared to the previous year. These factors are expected to contribute to fiscal consolidation and have led to improvements in credit ratings by rating agencies.

However, Kumar expressed concern over India’s declining exports, which have dropped by about 11% between April and August compared to the same period the previous year. He attributed this decline to the weak global demand, particularly in Europe and the United States, which has affected India’s export performance.

Kumar emphasized the need to enhance India’s share in global markets and address the correlation between India’s export performance and global trade trends. He encouraged efforts to boost India’s exports to a more significant share of world markets.

Regarding criticisms of India’s GDP measurement, Kumar called for clarity on the methodology employed. He suggested that the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) should provide clear reasons for using the wholesale price index (WPI) deflator instead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the GDP deflator to resolve any ambiguities in the calculation.

India’s real GDP growth for Q1 FY24 stood at 7.8% year-on-year, as per the Income or Production Approach. Recent discussions within the economic community have included debates on GDP measurement methods, with some economists expressing concerns over potential overestimation.

Former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian argued that GDP in India is primarily measured from the income side, potentially leading to an overestimation of growth. Nevertheless, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran defended the statistical accuracy of the data, highlighting the credibility of the same statistical authority during periods of economic contraction in the past.