For much of the past few years, U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips have been justified publicly as a matter of urgency. Policymakers warned that Chinese chipmakers, backed by massive state support and forced into self-reliance, were on the verge of closing the gap with Nvidia in AI hardware. That fear has shaped decisions in Washington, including recent efforts to loosen restrictions on certain Nvidia silicon bound for China.
Now, a new report from the Council on Foreign Relations paints a very…

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