Silver is heading into one of its most sensitive macro moments of the month on the back foot. Shares of iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, slid nearly 3% in premarket trading on Thursday as spot silver prices retreated ahead of closely watched U.S. labor data.
SLV was indicated down about 2.9% to $68.90 before the opening bell, extending losses after the fund fell 3.7% at Wednesday’s close. The ETF is now flirting with a break below its prior session low of $69.22, a move that would further distance prices from the $73.84 52-week high, which is increasingly acting as a near-term ceiling for bullish traders.
The weakness reflects a broader pullback in precious metals as markets brace for macro catalysts that could quickly reshape expectations around interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and bond yields.
Spot Silver Pulls Back as Traders De-Risk
In the physical market, spot silver fell roughly 3.1% to $75.73 an ounce, according to market data, with gold also easing. The move comes as investors position ahead of two major drivers: Friday’s U.S. payrolls report and the Bloomberg Commodity Index annual rebalance, which runs from January 9 to 15.
According to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, the rebalance could trigger $6 billion to $7 billion in futures selling per metal on COMEX, amplifying short-term volatility. For silver, which has already seen an outsized rally in recent months, that flow risk is hard to ignore.
HSBC analysts expect it to trade between $58 and $88 per ounce in 2026 but cautioned that the recent surge may have left the market vulnerable to a correction. It hit a record $83.62 on December 29, a move that some strategists now see as overextended in the absence of a fresh fundamental catalyst.
Inventory Dynamics, Not Shortages, Driving Volatility
While silver bulls have pointed to tight supplies, analysts at Goldman Sachs argue the issue is more about where silver is held rather than a true global shortage.
In a recent note, Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said thinner inventories have created the conditions for periodic squeezes, particularly in London. Significant volumes of silver were pulled into U.S. vaults last year, leaving London stocks unusually depleted and increasing sensitivity to shifts in flows.
That imbalance has supported prices over the past year—but it also means the market can unwind quickly when positioning flips or macro pressure builds.
Jobs Data Looms Large for Metals
The timing of its pullback is especially awkward for bulls because it comes just ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, one of the most important data points for interest-rate expectations.
Recent labor market data has hinted at cooling demand. U.S. job openings fell by 303,000 to 7.146 million at the end of November, and economists surveyed by Reuters expect payrolls to rise by only around 60,000 in December, with the unemployment rate edging down to 4.5%.
A weaker-than-expected report could revive rate-cut hopes and eventually support precious metals. However, in the short term, uncertainty tends to push traders toward the dollar and Treasuries—both of which typically pressure silver prices.
Inside SLV: Size, Exposure, and Risk
As of January 7, the iShares Silver Trust held 16,099.83 tonnes of silver, equivalent to about 517.6 million ounces, with 570.95 million shares outstanding, according to data published by BlackRock, which sponsors the fund.
The ETF’s net assets stood at approximately $40.9 billion, and its reference benchmark is the LBMA Silver Price, the London-set standard widely used in the global physical silver market.
For investors, SLV remains a highly liquid proxy for silver exposure—but days like this underscore how quickly sentiment can turn when macro risk and technical pressure collide.
The Bottom Line
It pullback isn’t being driven by a single headline but by a convergence of forces: positioning ahead of U.S. jobs data, looming index-related selling, and growing caution after a historic rally. For now, volatility looks set to remain elevated, with Friday’s payrolls report likely to determine whether silver stabilizes—or slides further—into the second half of January.
