A new NBER working paper from researchers at the Federal Reserve, Northwestern’s Kellogg School and Johns Hopkins finds that Kalshi — the largest federally regulated prediction market in the U.S., overseen by the CFTC — produces macroeconomic forecasts that match or beat those of professional forecasters and traditional financial instruments like fed funds futures.
The study compared Kalshi-implied forecasts for the federal funds rate, CPI inflation and unemployment…

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