India’s real GDP growth forecast for the financial year 2025-26 has been revised downward to 6.5 per cent from the earlier estimate of 6.7 per cent, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced on Wednesday (9 April) during the central bank’s policy review, reported ANI.
“The real GDP as you are all aware, this year, as per the MOSPI figures, is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent. This is on top of a 9.2 per cent growth rate observed in the previous year, which is 2024-2025,” said Malhotra.
He touched a cautiously optimistic note, pointing to the highlight areas driving economic momentum.
The agricultural sector is likely to be robust as a result of healthy reservoir levels and firm crop yields.
On the industrial front, manufacturing activity is indicating signs of a pick-up, with improved business sentiment, while the services sector is proving to be resilient, contributing consistently to GDP growth.
“On the demand side, bright prospects of the agriculture sector bode well for rural demand which continues to be healthy, while urban consumption is gradually picking up with an uptick in discretionary spending. Investment activity has gained traction and it is expected to improve further on the back of sustained higher capacity utilisation, government’s continued thrust on infrastructure spending, healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, along with the easing of financial conditions,” the RBI Governor said.
However, Malhotra cautioned merchandise exports may face pressure due to global uncertainties, while services exports are expected to be strong and help keep overall growth momentum.
“Merchandise exports will be weighed down by global uncertainties, while services exports are expected to remain resilient. Headwinds from global trade disruptions continue to pose downward risks,” he added.