AI was supposed to lead to a supercycle of smartphone growth, not just among iPhone users but also Android. But it turns out, that’s simply not a thing yet—at least based on global 2024 smartphone trends. Sales are trending up, but not at all for the reasons you might expect.
No iPhone supercycle in sight, but smartphone shipments rebound anyways for a surprising reason
This week the IDC (International Data Corporation) released its forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2024.
Overall, total smartphone shipments are expected to grow 6.2% following a couple years of declines.
- iPhones are only growing 0.4%, so no supercycle there
- Androids, meanwhile, are growing 7.6%
Why the positive trend? Are AI or foldables responsible?
It turns out, no, not really.
While GenAI continues to be a hot topic and top priority for many vendors, it is yet to impact demand significantly and drive early upgrades.
Similarly with foldables, IDC notes that they “continue to grab headlines despite the low volumes in the market.” And in Q3, “foldables declined by 7.4%, even as most of the world’s prominent vendors launched new models.”
So what’s the main driver behind smartphones’ 2024 success? “Low end devices.”
Rapid Android growth of 7.6% year-over-year focused in APeJC, Latin America, Middle East and Africa and China, primarily in low end devices, is pivotal to the 6.2% growth this year.
That’s right. Big tech advancements in generative AI and unique designs like foldables are not behind the 2024 smartphone rebound.
Instead, it’s simply overdue upgrades and low end devices providing a much-needed market boost.
Could 2025 change that? Sure. IDC says it still expects AI and foldables to lead to growth at the higher end over the coming years. But for now at least, there’s no sign yet of a big supercycle of upgrades thanks to AI.
What do you make of 2024’s smartphone trends? Is an iPhone supercycle coming? Let us know in the comments.
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